Trumped Up Diplomacy in the Middle East

20 May

 

In his first overseas trip since moving into the White House, Donald Trump is leaving behind the frustrations, allegations, rumors, and an increasing sense of implosion that seems to be dooming his presidency during its second hundred days. At the same time, a mixture of curiosity and apprehension awaits this new leader wherever he goes making his visit to the Middle East and Europe momentous occasions for the host governments, wide eyed public, and rapacious media. We need to remember that in this era of popular autocrats and surging right-wing populists, Trump is a ‘hero of our time.’

 

Even if all had gone smoothly for the new president in his home country, there should be expressions of deep concern about his travel itinerary. He visits first the two countries with which the United States has ‘special relationships’ in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Israel. What has long made them ‘special’ are a series of pre-Trump departures from realist and normative foreign policy orientations by successive American presidencies. These departures were motivated by oil geopolitics, arms sales and strategic alliances, hostility to Iran, and a disguised American sweet spot for foreign royalty. It is has long been obvious that uncritical deference to Israeli priorities has seriously undermined U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, which would have benefitted much more from policies designed to encourage peace and stability by refraining from regime-changing interventions, massive arms sales, and a diplomacy of respect for the politics of national self-determination.

 

Most remarkably, the U.S. Government has for decades winked at the billions of support given by Saudi members of the royal family to Wahabism, that is, to promote fundamentalist Islam, throughout the Muslim world. The first words uttered by Trump on his arrival in Riyadh were that it ‘an honor’ to be visiting.

Then came signed deals adding up to $110 billions in arms sales and the declaration of a common strategic vision, that is, a super-alliance, called an ‘Arab NATO’ in some circles, a dagger aimed at Iran’s heart. Why turn a blind eye toward the Saudi role in fanning the flames of jihadism while ramping up a military threat to relatively passive Iran that reelected Hassan Rouhani as its president, who has consistently championed moderation at home and normalization abroad.

 

How can we explain this? Trump has been critical of most aspects of the foreign policy agenda of his predecessors, but on the promotion of the special relationships he seems intent on doubling down on the most misguided aspects of earlier approaches to the region. The shape of his travel itinerary during his days confirms this impression. In this regard, Trump repudiates Obama’s hesitant, but in the end successful, efforts to bring Iran in from the cold, while trying to please Saudi Arabia by ignoring its extreme denial of human rights to its own people as well as its contributions to anti-Western terrorism.

 

If Trump was truly intent on putting America first, as he insistently asserts, then he could do so very directly and effectively by taking three major steps toward the protection of national interests: first, demand a firm commitment from the Saudi government to cease using private funds and public diplomacy to spread Wahabism beyond its borders. Any credible public statement along these lines would weaken ISIS and other terrorist movements throughout the world far more than cascades of Tomahawk missiles dumped on a Syrian airfield. Such a challenge to Saudi policies also raises the possibility, however remote, of an endgame in the ‘war on terror.’ If such a reset of Saudi relations could be coupled with an indefinite freeze on arms sales to the Gulf countries that would have been even better, sending a signal throughout the region that America will no longer engage with the bloody conflicts that have brought so much suffering and devastation to the Middle East. This might give some belated meaning to ‘America first.’

 

The second step would have been even harder for an American president to take. It would require Trump to tell Mr. Netanyahu that no further military assistance for Israel would be authorized until an unconditional freeze on settlement expansion was in place and enforced, and the blockade of Gaza lifted once and for all.

 

It does not require a PhD in Middle Eastern Studies to appreciate that the establishment of a nuclear free zone in the region and the adoption of effective steps to minimize the sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia Islam would improve future prospects for this horrendously disrupted political realities, at last reducing tensions and risks of wars. Nor does it require special knowledge to identify the obstacles such actions—the one government that already possesses nuclear weapons and the government that feels threatened by a challenge to its regional preeminence. Saudi Arabia and Israel both regard Iran as enemy number one, although it poses no existential threat to either one, and Israel will not even discuss giving up its nuclear arsenal despite being assured by Washington that its qualitative edge in conventional weaponry relative to its neighbors will be upheld.

 

The special relationships block even the consideration of enlightened initiatives, take them entirely off the table. This contrasts with the American proclivity for coercive diplomacy, which always assertively leaves the military option on the table. Without tension-reducing measures, a few false moves could easily give rise to a major war with Iran, which might bring smiles to leaders in Riyadh and Tel Aviv, but would be disastrous for the societies involved and for the United States, as well as for the region.

 

Given the leverage and militancy of pro-Israeli lobbies in the United States, more realistically pursuing American national interests toward Israel and the Middle East, seems tantamount to issuing invitations to Trump’s beheading, and despite his wildly gyrations of policy and mood, he has shown no disposition whatsoever to take on AIPAC, inc.. Quite the contrary.

 

Of course, I am not so naïve to think that the advocacy of rationality in foreign policy will have the slightest echo in Washington in the course of Trump’s current diplomatic foray into uncharted territories. What I wish to point out is that this kind of foreign policy fantasy, however desirable if it were to be enacted, has become a species of political suicide. Any political leader who moved in more rational directions would be risking his own life, at least politically. The proposals mentioned above tells us what an American president should do if a rational and humane political system was in place and organized in such ways as to allow the pursuit of national interests, the realization of values associated with peace and human rights, and to attain the benefits of just and sustainable Isreali/Palestinian peace arrangements.

 

As long as these dysfunctional special relationships are relied upon to define American national interests in the Middle East, violent extremism and turmoil will persist, the authority of the United Nations and international law will suffer, and the credibility of American regional and global leadership will further erode. And maybe worst of all, the mounting ecological and nuclear challenges of global scope and apocalyptical risk will be remain unattended in what has become the greatest display of species indifference to its own survival throughout human history.

 

Mainstream advice on the Middle East being proffered to the Trump presidency by Beltway sharpshooters takes for granted the geopolitical status quo questioned above. The problems presented by the two special relationships are not even mentioned. Given these perspectives there are three broad kinds of approaches recommended for the region: (1) don’t aim too high, lower expectations, and don’t touch raw nerves in Israel or the Arab world (e.g. moving the American embassy to Jerusalem or telling Israel to dismantle the separation wall, stop expanding settlements, or handle the ongoing hunger strike humanely)[See Aaron David Miller, “From My Twenty Years of Failing at Middle East Peace,” Foreign Policy online, May 19, 2017]; (2) gang up on Iran, which will please both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and will have some positive resonance back in the United States [e.g. Michael Doran, “A Trump Plan for the Middle East,” NY Times, May 19, 2017]; (3) adopt the Israeli hard right view, now pushed within the United States, that the best road to ‘peace’ is to give Israel a green light to exert even greater pressure on the Palestinians to the point of their surrender. [a position repeatedly advocated by Daniel Pipes on the online listserv Middle East Forum and elsewhere, see Pipes, “The Way to Peace: Israeli Victory and Palestinian Defeat,” Commentary, Jan. 2017; Pipes boasts of his work with the Congressional Israel Victory Caucus that wants the U.S. Government to stop talking about ‘the two state solution,’ and support an Israeli shift from managing the status quo to launching a campaign to defeat Palestinians so decisively as to end the conflict.]

 

The first of these approaches is a cautionary warning to Trump the maker of grand deals not to exceed the boundaries of the feasible. The Israel/Palestine conflict is not ripe for resolution, Israel has no incentive or inclination to reach a fair compromise and even if it were, the Palestinians are currently too fragmented and poorly led to provide a reliable negotiating partner. The second geopolitically oriented approach makes matters worse, pushing the sectarian and secular divides in the direction of a regional confrontation, even combat. The third is geopolitically triumphalist, assuming that the Palestinians can be induced to give up their century old struggle, and go the way of other indigenous lost causes that have succumbed to predatory settler movements.

 

As Trump dominates the news by his visits to Saudi Arabia and Israel we should not be tricked into thinking that his ‘achievements’ are hopeful developments. The only true beacons of hope for the peoples of the Middle East are the contrarian affirmations of the Palestinian hunger strike, the Rouhani electoral victory, and the BDS Campaign. The fact that such developments are ignored or condemned by the dominant political forces in the West should at least alert us to gathering storm clouds in that tormented region and elsewhere.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 Responses to “Trumped Up Diplomacy in the Middle East”

  1. Carlos May 20, 2017 at 9:36 pm #

    My wish is for some common sense to emerge in this murk.

  2. Brewer May 20, 2017 at 10:26 pm #

    The 1967 Obsession, Trump and Trivia By Miko Peled
    Extract:
    “Here are a few items that are sure not to be on Trump’s agenda: Two million people in Gaza have no access to clean water, proper nutrition or medicine. They have been victims of devastating attacks for seven decades and before they can recover from one assault there is another one pending. The Israeli water authority allocates only 3% of the water to Palestinians even though they make up more than 50% of the overall population. More than 55% of Palestinians with Israeli citizenship live below the poverty line, and even though they rate one of the highest in the world in literacy, there is massive unemployment among Palestinians. Palestinians in the West Bank live under a brutal military regime governed by Israeli commanders who impose inhumane laws and prevent people from enjoying the basic most human rights. Seven thousand political prisoners sit in Israeli jails in violation of international law, over fifteen hundred of them on a hunger strike for over a month.”

    https://mikopeled.com/2017/05/18/the-1967-obsession-trump-and-trivia-by-miko-peled/

    It beggars belief that the essays of this son of one of Israel’s first families do not gain mainstream currency. The story of his awakening is extraordinary. His journey began when his niece was killed in a suicide bombing. When Miko returned for the funeral, he found his sister refused to blame Palestinians for the tragedy. I cannot sufficiently express my admiration for this family and the hope they inspire.

  3. Beau Oolayforos May 21, 2017 at 1:58 pm #

    Dear Professor Falk,

    So the bleach-blonde bully goes to hobnob with his real, nut-job buddies – greasy little Saudis, Bibi & his fellow-murderers – even as he wistfully, wishfully flatters the heinousness of Sisi and Duterte. Birds of a feather.

    $110 bn in new weapons can’t be good news for Yemenis, as they die in droves from cholera and starvation, even if they manage to hold a wedding, or funeral, without getting massacred by all those shiny new toys. One more push to Armageddon: Herr Drumpf, the supposed deal-maker, is only beginning to see how profitable WMD’s can really be.

    • Gene Schulman May 22, 2017 at 7:25 am #

      I wish everyone would stop blaming Trump. He’s only a distraction to amuse us, while the real evil doers are still in place carrying on their usual apocalyptic foreign and domestic policies. Bush and Obama were no better. Nor will be Pence when Trump says adios.

      • Richard Falk May 22, 2017 at 9:03 am #

        Gene:

        You have an important structural point, but there are important adverse consequences associated
        with the strengths and weaknesses of particular leaders. Trump accentuates the worst features of
        the geopolitical/capitalist structure, and has abandoned those aspects of his campaign pledges that
        were promising–end of regime-changing interventions and net-isolationist reset.

      • Kata Fisher May 23, 2017 at 3:34 pm #

        A Note:

        I had terrible brainstorming, and I understand that they are trying to cook evil things against Iran, once again.

        Iran is in the Juridic rule, and if they try to do anything of evil will to Iran and it’s ecclesiastical democratically elected governing all curses will fall upon them. Saudi’s will have all courses of Church Charismatic upon them, and curses of the slaves among them that are without ceasing will be upon them. They will be utterly accursed. What that means for them is this — if they try to do anything evil against the Juridic rule of Islamic peoples tribes — They will be under a Juridic curse, and God will directly appoint it.

        For US and Israel — What that means for them is this: if they try to do anything evil against the Juridic rule of Islamic peoples tribes — They will be under a Juridic curse, and God will directly appoint it.

        Also, if folks of good will do not take over the chaos of things in satanic seals (of the wicked) against ecclesiastical Islamic peoples — the entire East and West will be under the harshest curse of civil and ecclesiastical destruction. It shall come upon them, as the pits that they dig will become their destiny.

        The utter Curse of Destruction in the Name of God whom King David worshipped and in the Name of Jesus Christ of Nazareth will be upon the wicked, in satanic seals of devil’s witchcraft, who craft against innocent blood, and those crimes will not be forgiven, and they shall be under curse of destruction and given over to the devil. Amen.

        I swear by Holy Altar of Holy One and all things on it — and all that sustains it that in this point in time the wicked are under ecclesiastical threat and curse of destruction that shall be multiplied upon the wicked in X time of 100 folds. Authentic Church Charismatic, prophetic anointing is watching on, and they will be accursed.

  4. Kata Fisher May 22, 2017 at 5:42 pm #

    A Note:

    That weaponry deal’s in satanic seals, and of devils — those weapons will end up as funding for the terrorist. They are in the same patterns they are almost one-half of the century. They certainly will not learn.
    Besides, Third Reich is on it’s move from Austro-Hungary to Germany to US and Israel to the US to Saudi Rabia, Jordan and Egypt!
    Israel are already in Third Reich spirit/s.
    They think that they can do whatever they want and wish. Within ten years from now, they will be under regrets for such heinous weaponry and crimes.

    Things going on between contemporary Jews and Arabs and Christianity in satanic seals is the closest thing to hell on earth that human race has witnessed and ever will see, and continue to see until end-times.

    I see hell among them and among them selfs.

    International Law is not binding to nothing good, only evil because they are parts in it that are in satanic seals.

    Church, will continue to laugh at incredible human stupidity.

    The preachers say that end time is near — the nearer it gets, the more hilarious it will be.

    The wicked and hostile deserve each other.

    Trump is doing all right — but he has been hanging way to long with a bad crowd. Culture of death is culture of death. Good luck to anyone hoping in any change. : )

    K.F.

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