Responding to The Syrian Challenge

27 May

 

 

            The issue facing the U.S. Government at this stage is not one of whether or not to intervene, but to what extent, with what objectives, and with what likely effects. More precisely, it is a matter of deciding whether to increase the level and overtness of the intervention, as well as taking account of what others are doing and not doing on the Assad regime side of the conflict. Roughly speaking, there have been interventions by the Turkey, the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the EU on the insurgent side, and by Russia, Iran, Hezbollah on the regime side, with a variety of non-Syrian ‘volunteers’ from all over being part of the lethal mix.

 

            From an international law perspective the issues are blurred and controversial, both factually and jurisprudentially. The Assad government remains the government of Syria from most international perspectives, despite having repeatedly perpetrated the most despicable crimes against humanity. Such behavior has eroded Syria’s status as a sovereign state whose territorial integrity, political independence, and governmental authority should be respected by outside actors including the UN. Under most circumstances the UN Charter obligates the Organization to refrain from intervening in matters internal to states, including civil wars, unless there is a clear impact on international peace and security.  Such an impact certainly seems to exist here, given the large-scale regional proxy involvement in the conflict. Given the pull and push of the current situation in Syria, the UN Security Council could, if a political consensus existed among its permanent member, authorize a limited or even a regime changing intervention under a UN banner. For better or worse such a consensus does not exist, and never has, since the outbreak of violence usually dated as commencing on March 15, 2011 with the violent suppression of previously peaceful anti-government demonstrations in the cities of Aleppo, Damascus, and especially Daraa, often known as ‘the cradle of the revolution.’ The situation is further clouded by bad geopolitical memories, especially the Security Council authorization to use force in Libya to protect the civilian population of Benghazi in March 2011. On that occasion, Russia and China, as well as Germany, Brazil, and India, put aside their anti-interventionist convictions, and allowed an intervention under NATO auspices to go forward by abstaining rather than voting against the authorization of force.  But what happened in Libya thereafter was deeply disturbing to the abstainers—instead of a limited authorization to establish a no-fly zone around Benghazi, a full-fledged air campaign with regime-changing objective in mind went forward without any effort by the intervenors to expand their mission or even to explain why the limits accepted in the Security Council debate and resolution were so blatantly put to one side. After such a deception trust was broken, and the difficulties of obtaining UN approval to act under the norm of ‘responsibility to protect’ were greatly magnified.

 

            Should it not be argued that the people of Syria should not be sacrificed because of this betrayal of trust in relation to Libya, and besides, Western leaders contend is not Libya and the world better off with Qaddafi gone. If this outlook is persuasive, and China and Russia continue to thwart a rescue of the Syrian people by threatening to veto any call for action, would it not be justifiable for a group of states to act without UN authorization, claiming Kosovo-like legitimacy. Yet there are major costs involved when the restraining ropes of law are loosening for the sake of moral and political expediency.  To cast aside the Charter regime is a move toward restoring the discretion of states when it comes to waging war, which was the main rationale for establishing the UN in the first place.

 

            This prohibition on non-defensive force holds legally even if a strong humanitarian justification for intervention can be made. The Kosovo precedent suggests that in the face of an imminent humanitarian catastrophe, an intervention will be widely endorsed as legitimate by the organized international community even if it is clearly unlawful. If such an undertaking is reasonably successful in ending the violence and saving lives, there is likely to be an ex post facto endorsement of what was done, especially if seems to most respected observer that humanitarian objectives were not invoked by the interveners to obscure the pursuit of strategic goals. This is what happened after the NATO War to remove the Serbian presence from Kosovo. The UN watched from the sidelines without condemning the unlawful use of force, and has played a central role in the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo. More surprisingly, the UN, to its regret, even attempted to play such a role after the flagrantly unlawful and illegitimate attack upon and occupation of Iraq, despite having earlier rebuffed the concerted American effort to win the approval of the Security Council prior to the war. It should not have come as a great surprise that the Iraqi resistance forces targeted the UN Headquarters in Baghdad, apparently regarding the UN as having becoming an arm of the occupying and invading foreign forces. Unlike Kosovo where the Serbs were driven out, in Iraq despite a massive displacement of civilians, resistance forces stayed in the country to fight against the occupiers and on behalf of their vision of a post-occupation Iraq.

 

            There are important world order issues present aside from the questions of legality and legitimacy. There are also pragmatic and prudential dimensions of any decision about what to do in response to Syria’s descent into chaos and horrific violence, with no early end in sight. Although the sovereign state is not an absolute ground of political community, it is the basic unit comprising world order, and the logic of self-determination should be allowed to prevail in most situations even when the results are disappointing. The practical alternative to the logic of self-determination is the hegemonic logic of hard power, and its record is not a happy one if viewed from the standpoint of people and justice. Sovereign equality has been the weave of the juridical order ever since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648, although the existential inequality of states has offered a counterpoint that as given rise to a variety of geopolitical regimes, e.g. the European colonial period, the bipolarity of the Cold War, the unipolarity of the 1990s, and perhaps, the emerging multipolarity of the early 21st century.

 

            When crimes against humanity cross a certain threshold of severity,  which is itself necessarily a subjective judgment, or where genocide is credibly threatened or actually taking place or credibly threatened, the normally desirable and applicable norm of non-intervention and its internal complement of self-determination, gives way to claims of ‘humanitarian intervention,’ a practice somewhat sanitized recently by being accorded normative authority in the form of a ‘responsibility to protect.’ National primacy gives ground to the primacy of the human in such exceptional circumstances, and the human interest can justify a full-scale intervention provided prudential and pragmatic factors seem likely to allow intervention to succeed at acceptable costs, and to be procedurally endorsed in some secondary way.  Of course, there is also the question of disentangling strategic motives for intervention from the humanitarian justification. There is no easy formula for distinguishing between acceptable and unacceptable blends of the strategic and the moral, but as Noam Chomsky warned during the Kosove intervention, ‘military humanism’ is not believable because double standards are so rampant. Why are the Kosovars protected but not the besieged population of Gaza? Why the Libyans but not the Syrians? The presence of double standards is not the end of the story. Without some strategic incentive it is unlikely that the political will is strong enough to succeed with a military undertaking that is purely a rescue operation. Recall how quickly the United States backed away from its involvement in Somalia after Black Hawk Down incident in 1993. In that sense, the presence of oil, maritime shipping lanes, pipeline routes is a strategic interest that will offset the costs of war for a considerable number of years as the Iraq invasion of more than ten years ago illustrated, but even in Iraq an eventual acknowledgement of the inability to achieve the strategic objectives led to a conclusion to give in and get out, time ran out. A democratic public does not accept the human and economic costs of a non-defensive war indefinitely, no matter how much the media plays along with the official line. That is the lesson that is imperfectly learned by politicians in a long list of encounters, most prominently, Vietnam, Iraq, and now Afghanistan.

 

            Arguably, in 1999 what happened in Kosovo was a positive scenario for interventionary diplomacy. NATO intervened without a green light from the UN, and yet managed, although without achieving complete success, to provide the great majority of the Kosovar population not only with security but with support for their claim of self-determination. Before the intervention, most of the Kosovo population was living under oppressive conditions, and faced a severe threat of worse to come. As many as a million people, almost half of the population, sought temporary refuge in nearby Macedonia, but ratified the intervention by returning to their homeland as soon as NATO had forced their Serbian oppressors to leave. There are complexities beyond the debate about the use of force. Who would settle the question of competing sovereign claims mounted by Belgrade and Pristina? It appears that the resolution of this dispute will be resolved for the foreseeable future by the de facto realities, which is to say in favor of Kosovar claims of political independence and in opposition to Serbian claims of historic sovereign title.

 

            Such a positive outcome didn’t occur in Iraq, which was attacked in 2003 without UN authorization, and in the absence of a humanitarian emergency, and the effects of the undertaking were horrendous in terms of level of devastation and loss of life, agitating sectarian conflict, with no stability or decent government put in place or in sight. A ruthless dictator who brought stability to Iraq was replaced by an authoritarian regime beset by enemies from within, including even the loss of control of the northern regions run by the Kurdish majority as a virtually of a state within the state. Such an intervention was neither legitimate nor lawful. The Libyan intervention of 2011 seems an intermediate case, if evaluated either from the perspective of just cause or overall consequences. The dust has certainly not settled in Libya, and at this point it is difficult to tell whether the future will resemble more the strife of Iraq or the relative calm of, say, Bosnia.

 

            How does Syria fit into this picture based on recent experience with large-scale interventions? The situation in Syria qualifies for intervention on behalf of a beleaguered population that have endured great suffering already, and in this respect, even absent UN authorization, the legitimacy rationale of Kosovo would seem sufficient. According to a variety of reports there have been at least 80,000 killed in the Syrian conflict, with an incredible 4 million Syrians internally displaced, with an additional 1.5 million Syrian refugees in neighboring countries, especially, Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan.  This massive spillover is giving rise to severe destabilizing tensions in these countries, and creating a rising risk that the internationalized civil war in Syria will further engage other countries directly in combat operations. Israel has already three times struck at targets in Syria that were allegedly connected with weapons shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and there are reports that Beirut has been hit by a rocket sent from Syrian rebel forces. Also relevant is the line in the sand drawn by Obama in relation to the use of chemical weapons by Damascus, or the depots used to store these weapons falling into hostile hands, and the Assad threats of retaliation, and some signs of violence on the border separating Syria from the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. And finally, the allegations by Israel and some right wing member of the U.S. Congress urging more aggressive moves in relation to Iran, with Netanyahu contending that Iran is seeking to become a ‘nuclear superpower’ with a program larger than that of either North Korea and Pakistan, both already members of the nuclear weapons club.

 

            The dangers of widening the war zone in a disastrous manner and of acting in behalf of the questionable agendas of states other than Syria greatly complicates the response to the Syrian internal crisis. It also gives a heavy weight to the question: how to take account of prudential considerations that relate to probable costs and effects of various alternative courses of action? Here there is much less prospect that sufficient force could and would be used to tip the conflict in favor of the disunited rebel groups in the direction of an acceptable outcome, or even that a sustainable ceasefire could be achieved. The more likely result of any further escalation of external intervention is to magnify the conflict still further, and this would likely include encouraging counter-moves by the powerful foreign friends of the Assad government. It needs to be realized that outsiders are engaged heavily on both sides, and each can credibly blame the other, although it does seem to be widely agreed that by far the greatest share of responsibility for the commission of atrocities belongs to the governing authorities operating out of Damascus. There is something strange about the alignments, with the conservative Arab governments in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as the United States and Western Europe, backing the revolutionary insurgency, despite it being increasingly dominated by radical Islamic participation, especially Jilhat al-Nusra. On the other side, Iran’s religiously oriented government finds itself aligned to the secular Ba’athist leadership in Damascus. 

 

            Against this background only a diplomacy of compromise seems both justifiable as the best among an array of bad option and prudent in having the best hope of ending the violence and putting Syria on a trail that could lead to political normalcy. But a diplomacy of compromise accepts the stalemate on the battlefield as its necessary starting point, and does not set preconditions, such as the removal of Bashar al-Assad from his position as head of state and the demand for a post-Assad transitional government in Damascus. Nor in like measure can a diplomacy of compromise expect the opposition to trust the government or to lay down their arms if the Assad regime is left in control of the governance structures in the country. Such a process can only hope to be effective if the two sides, at least subjectively, realize that they are trapped in an endless and irreversible downward spiral, and act accordingly, although not needing to admit such an unsatisfactory outcome in their public utterances. There are pitfalls. A ceasefire, even if bolstered by a major peacekeeping presence and some devolution of political authority that takes account of which side controls which city and region.

 

            The Syrian situation is further bedeviled by the absence of a unified insurgent leadership, making it unclear who can speak authoritatively on behalf of insurgent forces. Just a week ago some of the opposition forces met in Istanbul under the auspices of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, issuing a 16 point proposal that called for the departure of Assad from the country, the establishment of a coalition government to manage the transition, with the inclusion of some members of the Assad leadership, and impunity for all allegations of criminality associated with the strife. Such a proposal seemed to arouse controversy even at the coalition meeting, and seems without great support in Syria if the views of the various opposition groupings are all taken into consideration. In the meantime, the United States is acting strenuously to convene a second conference in Geneva during the month of June to exert pressure on the Assad government to negotiate an end to the war on the basis of the removal of Assad as president and the establishment of a pluralist transitional government tasked with organizing elections. The American Secretary of State, John Kerry, is energetically pushing this plan, which is linked to a threat—either negotiate along the lines we propose, or the arms embargo will be lifted, and the rebel militias will receive arms. Although the language being used by the United States and others in UN Action Group for Syria and the Friends of Syria is respectful of the role of the Syrian people in shaping the future of the country, there is a coercive aura surrounding this surge of diplomatic initiative that is dysfunctional to the extent that it seems based on the insurgency having the upper hand rather than there being a stalemate. Under the conditions prevailing in Syria, by far the role for external actors is to assume a facilitative mode that is fully supportive of a framework for negotiations based on a diplomacy of compromise. The litmus test for a diplomacy of compromise is the mutual realization that a battlefield stalemate cannot be broken by acceptable means. When and if this realization takes hold negotiations can proceed in a serious manner and a ceasefire is more likely to hold. What this would mean concretely is difficult to discern, and would undoubtedly be difficult for the parties to agree upon. An urgent preliminary step would be to invite trusted international envoys from non-geopolitically activist governments to talk with the entire spectrum of political actors to ascertain whether such a diplomacy of compromise has any traction at the present time, and if not, why not.

 

            Suppose such an initiative fails, and cannot it be said that this approach has already been tried under UN and Arab League auspices, designating such respected global figures as Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi to undertake a similar mission? Perhaps, such initiatives preceded the recognition by the Syrian antagonists that the military path is blocked and bloody, and that now the timing is better, although maybe not good enough. It could be that such an appreciation led Moscow and Washington to agree on convening a conference of interested governments in Geneva next month that is expected to include the government of Syria.  Such an international effort suggests that outsiders might be able to find enough common interests to put their geopolitical weight behind a diplomacy of compromise, but they should not attempt to do anything more by way of imposing conditions. An effective and legitimate diplomacy of compromise must be seen as coming from within, and not a maneuver that is executed from without. Of course, such restraint is not inconsistent with upgrading efforts to soften the hardships of Syrian refugees and those internally displaced, nor upgrading efforts to meet uregent relief needs in Syria, which probably calls for allowing reliable NGOs to take over the bulk of the humanitarian challenge, but again in a manner faithful to the ethos of compromise, which includes suspending disbelief as to who is right and who wrong.

 

            But what of the Jalhat al-Nusra extremists in the insurgent ranks, credited with doing the most arduous recent fighting on the insurgent side? And what about the war criminals running the government in Damascus? Or their Hezbollah allies also given major combat roles in the last several weeks? Can these realities be wished away, and if not how to respond? Radical uncertainty prompts caution with respect to every alternative course of action, including throwing up one’s hands in despair. Obviously a diplomacy of compromise is not a panacea, and likely is a non-starter, but in such a desperate situation it seems worth trying, provided it does not become a different kind of battlefield in which the goals sought by violence are being pursued by statecraft, doing nothing more than instituting an intermission between periods of unrestrained violence for the weary combatants. My essential argument is that until the parties engaged in hostilities on both sides recognize their inability to achieve a political victory by way of the battlefield, and external actors acquiesce in this recognition, there can only take place an unproductive and wrongheaded coercive diplomacy of partisanship, supporting the claims of the anti-Assad side. It should have become clear after more than two years of bloodshed and atrocities that no amount of geopolitical arm-twisting will lead Damascus and their own constituencies to place the destiny of Syria on this kind of diplomatic chopping block. 

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14 Responses to “Responding to The Syrian Challenge”

  1. NormaJFHarrison May 27, 2013 at 2:49 pm #

    “The anti-war movement in the United States has a duty to unequivocally oppose all forms of intervention by the United States, the oth…”
    http://www.answercoalition.org/national/news/why-we-oppose-us-israeli-intervention-syria.html
    These people, A.N.S.W.E.R., reliably have the right approach about these kinds of issues.
    Brutal (reactionary) forces are backing the attack on Syria in order to help the U.S. control it, as the U.S. is working to do world wide. It wants no one but itself to control what are called resources –
    Earth being formulated into a resourse – instead of what we need, love, so on.
    U.S. seeks control of riches – it defines what riches are.
    U.S. of course, is not us – the you and me-s.
    It seeks all power to it – to our Owners, which is the U.S.
    This follows the historical pattern, done since we got here – hu/man.
    …which we can change – because we have brains – and mouths – and thumbs – and ideas.
    Syria of course is not THE model of freedom – just, it’s not under U.S.’ thumb, and does have some human rights .

    “The conflict in Syria that began more than two years ago was fueled by a wide range of grievances, some legitimate, some reactionary. But the armed rebellion inside the country is today inextricably bound to imperialism and the most reactionary regimes in the Arab world. Its aim is to destroy a secular, nationalist government that U.S. leaders view as an obstacle to their goal of dominating the entire Middle East.”

    The “secular, nationalist government” means not religious, and maintaining itself for Syrians, against being taken over by the U.S. , at least in language it says it adheres to.
    Norma

  2. NormaJFHarrison May 27, 2013 at 2:51 pm #

    “The anti-war movement in the United States has a duty to unequivocally oppose all forms of intervention by the United States, the oth…”
    http://www.answercoalition.org/national/news/why-we-oppose-us-israeli-intervention-syria.html
    These people, …
    the option to receive responses – now checked

  3. Sergey May 27, 2013 at 5:07 pm #

    Dear Dr. Falk,

    Thank you for your insightful examination of the tragic situation in Syria.

    It is certainly not easy to grasp the multidimensional complexities of the civil war in Syria, and much harder to contrive a feasible solution that can bring violence in the country to a much desirable end.

    What I find particularly discouraging in this conflict, is Russia’s appalling and intransigent support for Assad’s regime and lack of unity in the Syrian opposition coalition. Though claiming impartiality and respect for international law, Russian government has provided military, financial and diplomatic support to Assad, thus, providing tacit consent to continuation of massacres instigated by the Syrian government; yet again Russia finds itself on the wrong side of history. Also, it is upsetting that even after two years of gory bloodshed, Syrian opposition could not overcome its ideological discords and so far failed to adopt concise and clear political platform that can promise political plurality and guarantee security for all Syrian citizens irrespective of their religion, ethnicity and political affiliations.

    • NormaJFHarrison May 27, 2013 at 6:02 pm #

      http://www.answercoalition.org/national/news/why-we-oppose-us-israeli-intervention-syria.html
      The anti-war movement in the United States has a duty to unequivocally oppose all forms of intervention by the United States, the other imperialists and their clients, and to support the right of the Syrian people to determine their own future, free from imperialist intervention.
      ——————–
      The Russians recognize the horrific assault by U.S. imperialism; they resist it wherever it rises. Like Israel – no compromise by it to stop their genocide, their incessant warring, there is no compromise by anti-imperialism, with U.S. limitless brutality.
      When you seek to explain in any way that actually defends the U.S. such as pretending that USSR, now Russia – and the other simiilarly defensive nations, are imperialist themselves, you ignore that the U.S. will atom bomb China not long from now… Tell me then of the bad imperialists other than the U.S. ….

  4. Spinoza May 27, 2013 at 6:40 pm #

    If the rebel forces would have to fight on their own, the whole mess would never have grown out to today`s proportions. And who asked the US to come and take part in this fight? The fact that the US and Israel are both on the same side puts the US in a bad light. Israel wants regime change, so they can help get a patsy to replace Assad. And with Syria under western control, the influence of Iran is greatly reduced. Why did Israel attack Syria? What legal or moral right do they have for that? I wonder, if Israel acts on command of the US, or is it the other way around?
    If Israel gets its way, the ME will be in their control and the Palestinians might as well move and give up all hope. The UN should really call the shots in this and any other conflict, but it has been rendered impotent by corruption. What does the UN do to punish the guilty parties, that illegally attacked Iraq? What does the UN do, to punish, or at least reprimand Israel, for attacking Syria? The US lost all its credibility after making the false claims for the invasion of Iraq. I consider credibility just as hard to regain as virginity.
    I have to agree here with NormaJFHarrison and put the blame squarely on the shoulders of the rebels and their backers.
    The ultimate goal here seems to be, to peel away all Iran`s allies, because the west fears the power of Iran. And if they were to develop an atomic weapon, I doubt Iran would use it, but Israel has already admitted to being willing to consider the use of such weapons and threatened as such.
    The only reason I can see for that is, that they lose their advantage in any struggle, if Iran was to get the bomb. And Israel likes its position of superior power, because they do not like compromise. The Palestinian question is ample proof of that.

    • NormaJFHarrison May 27, 2013 at 11:36 pm #

      Hello.
      I do not like blame – sounds too much like the saddened, children’s behavior – ‘Ahmunna tell !! ‘ We need to identify cause – which is what we’re doing here… and in general.
      Norma

  5. Gene Schulman May 28, 2013 at 1:21 am #

    As usual, Richard Falk describes the situation clearly, but he diplomatically hesitates to put the blame on any one cause for the turmoil that is Syria, and thus is at pains to offer a solution. Like the above commentors, I have no restraints to put the blame squarely on the US and its ally, Israel. What began as a popular uprising by elements in Syria against a totalitarian regime, following similar uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, has been co-opted by external forces – the US, Israel, NATO – in order to force regime change in a country that refused to submit to American imperial hegemony in this resource rich region of the world. This troika’s – US, Israel and NATO – ultimate goal is to overturn the regime in Iran, and Syria is the gateway. Russia and China have their own reasons for defying this troika. None of these powers, on either side, care a wit about the humanitarian tragedy they are wreaking, just so long as they can control, or prevent the other side from controlling, these resources.

    Of course it will never happen, but the best way to end this slaughter is for the US and its friends to just pull up stakes and go home.

  6. johnscallan May 28, 2013 at 7:04 am #

    Perhaps I am too old, and have seen too often monstrous decisions made on behalf of good people by bad governments. But a part of me begins to wonder, if the following is not true.

    As I look at the hell holes Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt and now Syria have descended into, could it be America’s ‘new policy’ in the Middle East is unending turmoil and instability for the entirie region. Shale oil, may have at last given the US security they once lacked in dealing with the Arab’s, and if a shortage of Arab oil hurts America’s major competitors, Europe and the Chinese too, well that’s an added bonus.

    Who knows, Machiavelli ma be Obama’s new bed time reading.

    • Gene Schulman May 28, 2013 at 8:37 am #

      I wouldn’t count on shale oil giving the US security. It’s putrid, polluting, poisonous, costly, and insufficient in supply. I doubt if Obama has even heard of Machiavelly, let alone read him.

  7. rehmat1 May 29, 2013 at 7:02 pm #

    I must admit, I could not believe my eyes when I read the news that our “Israeli poodle”, foreign minister John Baird has joined both Tehran and Moscow in condemning European Union’s decision on Tuesday not to renew its embargo on arming the rebels fighting Syrian forces for over two years now. The embargo expires on June 1.
    “John Baird said Ottawa won’t follow suit and instead supports a political solution to the civil war in Syria,” reported the Toronto Sun on May 29, 2013.
    Don’t forget, in the past, this dude had called Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “a brutal dictator”. Baird also closed diplomatic relations with ran, last year, accusing the Islamic regime of committing many “evil acts” including supporting Assad regime and arming Lebanese Islamic resistance Hizbullah, Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighting Israel – and country’s President Ahmedinejad’s resolution to “wipe Israel off world map“.
    http://rehmat1.com/2013/05/30/canada-no-arms-for-syrian-rebels/

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  1. TRANSCEND MEDIA SERVICE » Responding to the Syrian Challenge - June 3, 2013

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  2. Anton’s Weekly International Law Digest, Vol. 4, No. 3 (4 June 2013) | Anton's Weekly International Law Digest - June 3, 2013

    […] Responding to The Syrian Challenge – Richard Falk […]

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